fiscal policy

Federal Reser

2026-10-01 13:27:27

TS Lombard’s Steven Blitz says the Fed repeated an “original sin” and the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 8%

TS Lombard chief U.S. economist Steven Blitz is warning that the Federal Reserve has repeated what he calls an “original sin”: easing policy before inflation was fully defeated. In his latest report, Blitz argues that Wall Street is thinking too narrowly by focusing on 6% as the next major threshold for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. He says 5.75% may only be an interim platform and that 8% is the longer-term destination over the coming years. His case rests on a combination of loose fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, which he says is pushing the floor for both inflation and yields higher in each cycle. Blitz also points to swap spreads as evidence that investors are increasingly pricing fiscal risk rather than simply trading the shape of the yield curve or the path of policy rates. In his view, demand for sovereign bonds is weakening even after accounting for curve dynamics and bank balance-sheet regulation. Blitz does not predict a single asset crash. Instead, he argues that the first thing to break may be investors’ long-held belief that inflation will reliably return to 2% and that buying stocks and bonds on dips will always pay off.

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Bessent

2026-09-15 10:48:48

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent to testify tonight as markets watch for fiscal and rate signals

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 tonight for a hearing on the state of the international financial system, according to ChainCatcher. Markets are focused on whether he will offer fresh signals on fiscal policy, Treasury issuance and buyback plans, debt management, and the outlook for the U.S. dollar and interest rates. The market reading outlined in the source is straightforward: comments leaning toward deficit control could ease upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, while remarks pointing to fiscal expansion could leave investors watching for yields to move higher. The hearing is being tracked for policy clues rather than any announced measure at this stage.

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Japan bonds

2026-09-01 12:01:55

Japan 10-Year Bond Yield Breaks 3% as Global Bond Selloff Intensifies

Japan's 10-year government bond yield breached 3% for the first time since 1996, joining a global rout in fixed-income markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 4.79%, while Germany's 10-year Bund yield reached its highest since 2011. The selloff is driven by inflation fears, rate hike expectations, and fiscal financing pressures. Japanese investors may reduce overseas bond allocations, and analysts say Japan's diminished role as a marginal buyer of foreign debt could lift global term premiums and long-term yields. Other factors include Middle East tensions, US debt surpassing $40 trillion, Japan's fiscal expansion, and tech giants issuing long-term bonds for AI infrastructure, adding to supply pressures.

910

Japan budget

2026-09-01 09:24:00

Japan's Record Budget Requests Draw Fiscal Focus as 10-Year JGB Yield Hits 3%

Japanese ministries submitted a record total of around 143 trillion yen in budget requests for the next fiscal year, according to Zhitong Finance, just as the benchmark 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996. The requests, compiled from 18 ministries and agencies, include a Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry bid more than five times the year-earlier level, as well as record requests from ministries in charge of defense and social security. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's fiscal ambitions are drawing closer attention as the market waits for details on spending and financing plans. Concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook have weighed on bonds. Growth Strategy Minister Jonai Makoto said Takaichi is reforming the country's budgeting process, which traditionally relies on supplementary budgets on top of annual initial budgets. He argued that FY2027 budget requests should be compared with the combined scale of the FY2025 supplementary budget and the FY2026 initial budget.

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Bitcoin

2026-08-26 03:25:20

Strive CEO Matt Cole: U.S. Treasury Market Nearing a Breaking Point as Bitcoin's 'Grand Slam Moment' Takes Shape

Strive CEO Matt Cole has published an extensive macro analysis arguing that the U.S. fiscal trajectory is unsustainable, with deficits near 6% of GDP despite near-full employment. He identifies the 5.25%–5.85% range on the 10-year Treasury yield as a critical policy threshold where the Treasury or Federal Reserve will be forced into large-scale market intervention. Cole contends that the resulting adjustment pressure will be channeled through a weakening dollar rather than resolved through fiscal discipline, creating a historically favorable macro backdrop for Bitcoin. He describes a 'grand slam scenario' where dollar depreciation, policy-driven yield suppression, and AI's erosion of traditional business moats converge to amplify Bitcoin's appeal as the premier scarce monetary asset, concluding that the market may still be underestimating Bitcoin's long-term upside.

980

US Treasuries

2026-08-23 13:08:32

Analysts say Bessent must do more to convince markets he is serious about U.S. fiscal strains

Signals from the U.S. bond market over the past few days suggest investors are not prepared to look past the country’s roughly $40 trillion debt burden. Treasury Secretary Bessent has outlined plans to expand long-term Treasury buybacks this fall, said the Treasury would use its broad policy “toolbox” to support markets, and pointed to additional steps aimed at slowing the growth of the federal debt load. Still, market participants cited in the report said those moves have not yet restored confidence. John Arnold, the former Enron energy trader and founder of Arnold Ventures, said this summer’s bond-market turbulence may end up being just “another quickly fading episode.” His larger concern, according to the report, is that the lack of meaningful change in the U.S. fiscal position could persist until it eventually triggers a crisis. Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, said she remains highly uneasy because Bessent has failed to rein in long-term Treasury yields. In her view, bond-market pricing shows that so-called bond vigilantes still do not trust him. The report added that Bessent needs to go further if he wants investors to believe the Trump administration is seriously confronting the fiscal problem, though any discussion of tax hikes or austerity before the November midterm election would be politically unpopular.

1130

U.S. Treasury

2026-08-20 15:03:42

Bessent Says Treasury Bond Buyback Cap Could Exceed $4 Billion

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Aug. 20 that the cap for a single bond buyback could exceed $4 billion, saying part of the point is to send a signal. He said yields do not reflect fundamentals, added that Treasury and the Federal Reserve would work together if there were any balance-sheet changes, and noted that the market may have moved too fast. Bessent also said he may have already seen the deficit peak and that a press conference on Iran sanctions will be held next Monday.

1020

Japan

2026-08-10 16:20:04

Japanese minister says ¥370 trillion industry plan will not undermine fiscal stability

Japan’s economic revitalization minister Saneyuki Konochi said the government’s large-scale industry investment plan would not weaken fiscal stability and could instead offer long-term support for the yen by lifting growth potential and drawing in capital. The roadmap, announced in June, spans 14 years and totals ¥370 trillion, or about $2.3 trillion, covering 17 priority areas including artificial intelligence, semiconductors and gaming. The plan has drawn market concern over Japan’s fiscal burden and debt risks. Konochi said backing strategic sectors such as AI and semiconductors is necessary to raise productivity and strengthen Japan’s global competitiveness, adding that larger inflows into Japan and yen-denominated assets would increase demand for the currency. He also pushed back on concerns over fiscal expansion, saying the government would place more weight on internationally used gauges such as the debt-to-GDP ratio rather than focusing only on achieving an annual primary budget balance. On monetary policy, he said he supports the Bank of Japan making decisions independently and that he respects the central bank’s independence, as market expectations build for another rate hike in September or October.

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